1Associate Professor of Biostatistics, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
2Master student of Occupational Health, School of Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Background & Aims: Occupational accidents are known as one of the most important causes of disabilities and mortality in developed and developing countries. Construction industry is one of the most high risk occupations which its hazardous are not known completely. In addition to occupational accidents, construction workers are faced many diseases factors such as asbestos, silicon, fumes and noises. The aim of this research was an epidemiological study and determination of a model for estimating accidents of instructor industry by the year 2011 in Yazd city. Methods: This study is a descriptive, analytical and distribution modeling. The questionnaire contained the variables of age, occupation, type of accident, injured part and the results of accident. Results: In this research 247 construction workers injured along five years in Yazd were studied. Most of the injured workers had worked less than one year (34.8%) and 12.55% had worked more than 20 years. Fatal rate of workers with no insurance was significantly more than those who had insurance (p<0.01). The most prevalent accident was falling (48.58%) and the less was chocking (2%). The highest level of injury was in hands and feet (27.53%) followed by head injury (22.27%). The relationships of accident results with occupation and also part of body were statistically significant (P<0.001). More than 51% of head injuries lead to death. After testing many models, time series model of quadratic form was found to be the closest model to the trend of data. Conclusion: According to time series model estimation, with this trend the rate of occupational injuries would be more than 300 cases by the year 2011 and this recommends serious measures for prevention.