Journal of Kerman University of Medical Sciences

Breast Cancer Risk Assessment using Gail Model in 35 to 69-year-old Women Referred to the Breast Cancer Screening Center at Omid Hospital in Isfahan, Iran, from 2008 to 2016

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Asiyeh Kahyani 1
Fariborz Mokarian 2
Elham Moazam 3
Hajar Karevan 4
Ghasem Yadegarfar 5

1 MSc Student, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran

2 Professor, Department of Clinical Oncology, Cancer Prevention Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran

3 MD, Community Medicine, Cancer Prevention Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran

4 MSc, Cancer Prevention Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran

5 Associate Professor, Cancer Prevention Research Center, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22062/jkmu.2020.91476
Abstract
Background: Prediction of breast cancer risk and identifying women who are at high risk of breast cancer, would be a great help for planning and conducting screening programs. The aim of this study was to estimate the 5-year breast cancer risk among women in Isfahan.
Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 9674 women aged 35-69 years who referred to the Breast Cancer Screening Centre at Omid Hospital in Isfahan from 2008 to 2016. Data were collected using a breast cancer risk assessment tool (Gail model). Any woman with Gail scores greater than 1.67% was considered as a high-risk woman for breast cancer. Using STATA 14, logistic regression was employed to determine the predictors of breast cancer risk at significance level of 5%.
Results: The mean 5-year breast cancer risk (BRCA) for all women was 0.62 ± 0.39%, and 2.56% of women had 5 years breast cancer risk greater than or equal to 1.67%.  There was a relationship between the 5-year risk of breast cancer and age, age at menarche, age at first live birth, family history of breast cancer, and history of breast biopsy.
Conclusion: According to the results, the Gail model can predict the risk of breast cancer and may be employed as a breast cancer risk assessment tool in screening and prevention of breast cancer program.

Keywords

Breast Cancer
Risk Assessment
Gail model
Isfahan
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Journal of Kerman University of Medical Sciences
Volume 27, Issue 5
September and October 2020
Pages 436-446

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