Journal of Kerman University of Medical Sciences

The Effect of Age-Threshold on COVID-19 Patients Cure Rate: A Historical Cohort Study

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Yaser Ghelmani 1
Tahere Fallah Tafti 2
Farimah Shamsi 3

1 Clinical Research Development Center, Department of Internal Medicine, Shahid Sadoughi hospital, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences and Health Services, Yazd, Iran

2 Shahid Sadoughi hospital, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences and Health Services, Yazd, Iran

3 Centre of Healthcare Data Modelling, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences and Health Services, Yazd, Iran

https://doi.org/10.34172/jkmu.2023.28
Abstract
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic had caused unexpected strain on healthcare systems in most countries in 2020. Although different survival models were used in clinical decision-making for COVID-19 patients, the effect of different risk factors in patients has not been identified clearly. Elderly patients, especially with comorbidities, were introduced as the most susceptible group at the risk of death. This study aimed to determine the threshold of age that influences chronic diseases and other factors that increase the cure rate of COVID-19 patients.
Methods: This observational study was conducted at Shahid Sadoughi hospital in Yazd, Iran. All participants were older than 18 years old with confirmed COVID-19 and completed the day-30 and day-180 follow-ups. The Bayesian method was used through the cure rate models, practical models in survival with a single change-point to detect the threshold of age, illustrating each risk factor’s effect on the cure rate of patients.
Results: The analysis included 901 confirmed COVID-19 cases with a mean age of 54.93 ± 17.37 years. From all, 58.7% (n = 529) were men and 9.9% (n=83) death occurrences were recorded. Sixty-five years of age was estimated as the effective change- point that could change the cure rate of patients at the end of the follow-up times.
Conclusion: The cure rate at any time during 30 and 180 follow-up days was noticeably higher in COVID-19 patients younger than 65 years who had cancer.

Highlights

Yaser Ghelmani(Google scholar)(Pubmed)

 Tahere Fallah Tafti(Google scholar)(Pubmed)

Farimah Shamsi(Google scholar)(Pubmed)

Keywords

COVID-19
Mortality
Age
Survival
Bayesian method

  1. 1. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): World Health Organization. http://covid19.who.int/. Updated May 29, 2020. Accessed May 31, 2020.

    2. Zheng Z, Peng F, Xu B, Zhao J, Liu H, Peng J, et al. Risk factors of critical & mortal COVID-19 cases: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis. J Infect. 2020;81(2):e16-e25. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.04.021.

    3. Chen L, Zhang B, Ti MN, Yang K, Zou Y, Zhang S. Clinical course of severe and critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a comparative study. J Infect. 2020;81(2):e82-e4. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.05.021.

    4. Shamsi F, Baghestani AR, Binesh F. Bayesian approach for cure models with a change-point based on covariate threshold: application to breast cancer data. J Biopharm Stat. 2020;30(2):219-30. doi: 10.1080/10543406.2019.1632877.

    5. Galbadage T, Peterson BM, Awada J, Buck AS, Ramirez DA, Wilson J, et al. Systematic review and meta-analysis of sex- specific COVID-19 clinical outcomes. Front Med (Lausanne). 2020;7:348. doi: 10.3389/fmed.2020.00348.

    6. Nasiri MJ, Haddadi S, Tahvildari A, Farsi Y, Arbabi M, Hasanzadeh S, et al. COVID-19 clinical characteristics, and sex-specific risk of mortality: systematic review and meta- analysis. Front Med (Lausanne). 2020;7:459. doi: 10.3389/ fmed.2020.00459.

    7. Sousa GJB, Garces TS, Cestari VRF, Florêncio RS,

    Moreira TMM, Pereira MLD. Mortality and survival of COVID-19. Epidemiol Infect. 2020;148:e123. doi: 10.1017/ s0950268820001405.

    1. Salinas-Escudero G, Carrillo-Vega MF, Granados-García V, Martínez-Valverde S, Toledano-Toledano F, Garduño- Espinosa J. A survival analysis of COVID-19 in the Mexican population. BMC Public Health. 2020;20(1):1616. doi: 10.1186/s12889-020-09721-2.

    2. Kalantari H, Haji Hossein Tabrizi A, Foroohi F. Determination of COVID-19 prevalence with regards to age range of patients referring to the hospitals located in western Tehran, Iran. Gene Rep. 2020;21:100910. doi: 10.1016/j.genrep.2020.100910.

    3. Moradzadeh R, Jamalian SM, Nazari J, Kamali A, Sadeghi B, Hosseinkhani Z, et al. Age-standardized mortality rate and predictors of mortality among COVID-19 patients in Iran. J Educ Health Promot. 2021;10(1):169. doi: 10.4103/jehp. jehp_946_20.

    4. Arman A, Tajik M, Nazemipour M, Ahmadinejad Z, Keyvanloo Shahrestanaki S, Hazrati E, et al. Risk factors of developing critical conditions in Iranian patients with COVID-19. Glob Epidemiol. 2021;3:100046. doi: 10.1016/j. gloepi.2020.100046.

    12. Shi Y, Yu X, Zhao H, Wang H, Zhao R, Sheng J. Host susceptibility to severe COVID-19 and establishment of a host risk score: findings of 487 cases outside Wuhan. Crit Care. 2020;24(1):108. doi: 10.1186/s13054-020-2833-7.

    13. Jordan RE, Adab P, Cheng KK. COVID-19: risk factors for severe disease and death. BMJ. 2020;368:m1198. doi: 10.1136/bmj.m1198.

    14. Mirjalili M, Dehghani M, Raadabadi M, Dehghani A. Death risk among COVID-19 patients in Yazd, Iran: a hospital- based case-cohort study. J Mil Med. 2021;23(3):274-82. doi: 10.30491/jmm.23.3.274.

    15. Zali A, Gholamzadeh S, Mohammadi G, Azizmohammad Looha M, Akrami F, Zarean E, et al. Baseline characteristics and associated factors of mortality in COVID-19 patients; an analysis of 16000 cases in Tehran, Iran. Arch Acad Emerg Med. 2020;8(1):e70. doi: 10.22037/aaem.v8i1.872.

    16. Levin AT, Hanage WP, Owusu-Boaitey N, Cochran KB, Walsh SP, Meyerowitz-Katz G. Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications. Eur J Epidemiol. 2020;35(12):1123-38. doi: 10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1.

Journal of Kerman University of Medical Sciences
Volume 30, Issue 3
May and June 2023
Pages 171-176

Home

Editorial Board

Guide for Authors

Submit Manuscript

Guide for Reviewers

Contact Us