Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 School of Nursing and Midwifery, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
2 Student Committee of Medical Education Development, Education Development Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
3 Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
4 School of Medicine, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
Abstract
Introduction: The rapid expansion of MSc and PhD programs in Medical Education in Iran requires workforce planning to align graduate output with academic and healthcare-sector needs. This study projected the supply and demand for Medical Education graduates in Iran up to 2030.
Methods: A mixed-methods approach combined stock-and-flow modeling with a structured expert panel. National data on admissions, graduation, and employment (2008–2021) were obtained from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education and the National Organization of Educational Testing. Experts defined relevant job positions, workload coefficients, and attrition rates. Supply projections incorporated current workforce stocks, graduate inflow, and annual attrition rates of 4% for MSc and 3% for PhD graduates. Demand was estimated based on existing and anticipated positions in universities, hospitals, and the health system.
Result: Under stable admission rates, the model projected a substantial surplus by 2030. MSc supply was estimated at 554 compared with a demand of 249, yielding a surplus of 305. For PhD graduates, projected supply was 280 compared with a demand of 173, resulting in a surplus of 101. Scenario analyses indicated that the surplus could be reduced through increased workforce demand or a policy-driven reduction in admissions.
Conclusion: Continuing current admission rates is likely to create a considerable surplus of Medical Education graduates by 2030. Scenario-based workforce planning, adjustment of student admissions, expansion of relevant employment opportunities, and curriculum alignment with evolving health-sector needs are recommended.
Highlights
Sara Shafian (Google Scholar) (PubMed)
Sarvin Bosak (Google Scholar) (PubMed)
Sadegh Abaei Hasani (Google Scholar) (PubMed)
Hossein Rezazadeh (Google Scholar) (PubMed)
Keywords
Main Subjects
)